First published on May 28th.
Carraighill has developed a framework to monitor the recovery from COVID-19 (our base case is a one quarter lockdown). This note is the 5th weekly update with latest data.
1. Track the virus (new cases still falling):
- The share of world GDP past peak remains close to 80%.
- 72% of USA GDP is past peak. This is a decline from 81% last week as new cases increased in California and South Carolina.
2. Monitor the lockdown intensity (easing continues): Countries representing 23% of world GDP have eased in the past 2 weeks. Brazil (2.5% of world GDP) has seen the largest fall. China (16% of GDP) and South Korea have tightened modestly. Overall, lockdowns remain severe in most countries.
3. Measure the subsequent recovery (improving):
- Public transport usage and restaurant bookings continue to rise gradually in major world cities.
- Hong Kong and Seoul public transport usage continues to rise, it is now 25% below January levels. Berlin has recovered quickest among European capitals and is now c. 50% below January levels.
New coronavirus clusters emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan and in the north east region bordering North Korea. Lockdowns were reintroduced for 100 million residents. Mass testing was ordered for the entire population of Wuhan with nearly 7 million people tested over 12 days to May 26th. Only 206 asymptomatic cases were discovered.
Note: Recent changes to the methodology of the Oxford lockdown stringency index has caused discrepancies in data reported between this report and previous reports.