Carraighill Insight Distilled

Build the framework. We consolidate decades of national accounts, balance-of-payments, monetary and sectoral statistics into consistent long-run series, reconciled across the household, corporate, government and external sectors. Several frameworks span the system.

Form the thesis. Integrating the frameworks isolates the causal drivers of an economy, sector or balance sheet, showing how fiscal positions, savings behaviour, credit demand and rates interact, and yields a testable thesis.

Express the thesis. The thesis is translated into explicit forecasts and their market expression: bank-level estimates of net interest income, earnings and valuation, and positioning on policy rates, yield curves and relative sovereign spreads.

Track, test and extend. Each thesis is monitored against monthly and quarterly data releases, with defined signals for confirmation or revision.

The framework set is applied consistently across the euro area, the UK, Scandinavia, Central and Eastern Europe (including Turkey), Brazil and Mexico.